Research Methodology
What a Company Page Covers
Every company page answers the same eight questions in the same order, so that coverage is comparable across companies and so that no company receives a structurally more favourable treatment than another.
- Is the company publicly traded?
- What is the current valuation, and what set it?
- What is the filing status, and what timing has been reported?
- What routes exist for exposure, and what restricts them?
- Is there a share price?
- What is known about secondary market activity?
- What would have to go right?
- What could go wrong?
The structure is fixed. We do not vary it between companies, because varying it is how editorial preference enters coverage without being visible.
Valuations
A private valuation is one negotiated transaction on one date. It reflects what a specific investor agreed to pay for a specific class of shares, frequently a preferred class carrying rights that common shareholders do not have. It is not a market price and nothing marks it between rounds.
When we quote a valuation, we state the date and the source of the mark. A valuation without a date is not information.
We distinguish primary from secondary marks. Primary marks come from priced rounds. Secondary marks come from marketplace activity and reflect thin volume. They routinely diverge, sometimes substantially.
We distinguish preferred from common. Where a 409A valuation is known and relevant, we say so.
Secondary Market
Secondary marketplaces publish indicative bid/ask ranges based on completed and attempted transactions. We report these as reference points reflecting limited volume — not as quotes and not as prices.
A handful of transactions can set the visible range in a name that trades rarely. We say so on the page rather than presenting a range as though it carried the weight of a public market quote.
Status and Timing
Confidential submissions are reported as confidential submissions. They are not commitments. Companies withdraw, delay, and re-file without public notice.
Reported timing is attributed and dated. When we write that a company is "reportedly targeting" a window, we name who reported it and when. Reported target dates originate with people who benefit from the reporting.
Elapsed targets are marked as elapsed. When a reported window passes without a listing, we say so rather than quietly deleting the date.
What Our Coverage Cannot Tell You
- Whether a company will list. No private company is obligated to, and most never do.
- What a listing would price at. The last private mark is a poor predictor. Of the 25 most anticipated 2025 IPOs, only 10 currently trade above their offering price.
- Whether a specific offering is legitimate. We cover companies, not the vehicles that claim to hold them. Diligence on any sponsor, structure, or intermediary is yours to perform.
- What you would actually own. That is determined by the document you sign, not by the company's fundamentals.
Sources
Primary
SEC filings including S-1s and confidential submission disclosures, company announcements, earnings communications, and direct executive statements.
Secondary
Established financial press with named reporting, including Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times.
Market Data
Renaissance Capital for IPO volume and performance statistics; secondary marketplace platforms for indicative private market pricing, labelled as such.
Analyst Estimates
Attributed to the analyst and the date, and never presented as fact.